SYRIA: ASSAD FLEES - RUSSIA & IRAN IN CRISIS
Washington DC December 8, 2024
This is what imperial overstretch looks like when it snaps. The biggest losers are Russia & Iran. Assad was always a pawn. Israel's unrelenting attacks on Iranian proxies throughout the region set the conditions for the final push. Syrian rebels seized the moment via unconventional blitzkrieg resulting in a decisive operational victory. Strategically, how this shakes out is entirely another matter.
One future is Syria is mired for years in power struggles among the factions, opening the door for external influence to incrementally creep back in.
Another is a coalition forms that has sufficient power to maintain control. The question will then be will they focus on internal rebuilding or be tempted by events around them to engage in continued conflict? Afterall, in their minds they just defeated Assad, Russia and Iran. So they might think they are all-powerful and engage in some overstretch of their own.
Deciding to be a base for global jihad would be unwise at least, and until, full and lasting control is established and settled over time. Should jihad be chosen, who would be the "far enemy"? One might assume Russia given its role in war crimes against the Syrian people. Russia has used its periphery minorities as cannon fodder in Ukraine. There are islamist movements across the breadth of its southern flank. If Russian-focused islamists were so inclined, they may take note than an illegitimate regime engaged in war crimes at the furthest extent of its lines of communication might present an interesting political opportunity. Especially in light of all the armor, artillery, and other capabilities moved from the east to prosecute the war in the far west (UKR). 10,000 North Koreans point to deep weakness.
[China might decide some liebestraum in the lands Russia took from China might not be a bad idea too. Especially as they have been under heavy Chinese influence for a long time, economically, and demographically.]
Perhaps it's career scars, but I can't help feel they may instead choose America yet again as the "far enemy", not fully appreciating just how much the US is tearing itself apart under the guidance of foreign malign influence operations magnified, amplified and accelerated, by uncontrolled disinformation in all media - especially the brain worm kind - social. Jihad might serve to create unity - the opposite of any Talib or Muj objective. Would they be sophisticated enough to see that? Conversely, putting enough pressure on Russia to force Putin to fall out of a window would go a long way to helping the US to return to its constitutional order. Again, a bit too many steps ahead for hot heads.
Iran is at a moment of peak vulnerability that is now turning into ultimate peril. It totally miscalculated when it pushed Israel way past the hybrid war threshold, deep into major combat operations and has suffered devastating losses as a result. The spectacular supply chain operation, the targeted assassinations in Lebanon and particularly Theran, sent a very clear message that Israel could wipe out the Supreme Leader at whim if he did not back down. Iran's proxies have been decimated. In hybrid war terms, Iran has suffered its Dunkirk but did NOT manage to evacuate its forces to fight another day. As I have repeatedly written, it's time for maximum pressure on the corrupt and bankrupt regime that is hated by its people.
Iran has lost Syria. At least for now. Its lines of communication to Lebanon are severed. It's unpopularity in both places is notable. Meaning both the locals feel empowered to express their feelings and Iran is powerless to do anything about it. The Houthi's are powerless without Iranian support and they have been taking increasing allied in-coming for over a year now. Their capacity to keep taking hits is not infinite, especially if their master is overstretched. The only place where Iran has influence is Iraq and Syria may have unintended complications for the Ayatollah on his western flank.
Which brings us to the Kurds. America's only true ally in the immediate region. The Kurds bucked the post WWII historical trend of America often siding with fake or un-democratic regimes like Diem, Challabi and Karsai. The Kurds are fierce warriors who delivered. So we stabbed them in the back. By we, I mean, Trump. Now that the Kurds have fought their way into a prominent role in the victory over Assad, Putin and the Ayatollah (our natural enemies), how will the return of Trump impact what would have been an enjoyable Kurd-American moment of rare triumph? Especially in light of Trump's support for Putin.
If there ever was one, this is the moment to flood Ukraine with all possible support. Russia has been defeated in the side theatre and it's tottering in the main theatre. Instead, Trump will complete his long standing efforts to cut aid to Ukraine, thereby saving Putin from his ‘window of opportunity'. If only Trump could grasp how free he too would be with Putin gone from the scene (provided the archives could be sanitized in time).
The opportunities unleashed by the fall of Authoritarianism in Syria may be extinguished by its rise in America.