Alternative Thinking - A Case Study: A Strategy Against Hamas
A discussion between strategic thinkers
Washington DC 12 OCT 2023
MIL is about how to think about strategy. It was not created to be a place to discuss what to think about current plans or operations. The sudden barbaric attack by Hamas against Israel, poses some critical challenges that do not fit into the remit of MIL’s sister publications, so we have decided to use the situation as a case study for how to apply MIL’s type of strategic analysis. 1
This short article takes the form of a discussion between MIL and a former colleague. We worked together at USSOCOM HQ in Plans. It started with MIL’s colleague presenting a very good summary of the operational picture.
[Acronyms: ISL = Israel, LH = Lebanese Hizbollah, COA = Course of Action, SOF = Special Operations Forces, IDF = Israeli Defense Forces, IO = Information Operations - aka propaganda]
Operational Assessment
Israel (ISL) update:
- HAMAS launched surprise offensive on 7 Oct and caught ISL flat-footed (Pic 1: @X_TrendsX). HAMAS attacked ~22 settlements, 7 military outposts, breached the border fence in ~ 50 places and infiltrated ~2,000 light infantry into ISL. HAMAS also launched ~3,500 rockets and overwhelmed Iron Dome (before, biggest rocket salvo was 500/day).
- Huge intel failure for Mossad, Shin Bet, AMAN, CIA… Egypt warned ISL ~10 days before, but no action taken.
- HAMAS used drones to take out border towers (Pic 3: @Zeus_PSF), maybe cyber attack to degrade alert systems. ISL had min manning due to holiday, and response was slow and uncoordinated. Very similar to strategic surprise in 1973.
- ISL had ~1,000 KIA, 3,500 WIA, and HAMAS/PIJ took 140+ hostages back to Gaza.
- My take on HAMAS objectives: provoke ISL into ground invasion of Gaza, hostages to trade for all Palestinian prisoners, derail Saudi/ISL relations, damage ISL (regardless of HAMAS losses).
- ISL has regained control of all settlements and bases, largely sealed the border, and initiated aggressive air campaign. A few small bands of gunmen remain in ISL. Heavy rocket fire continues daily, Iron Dome appears degraded.
- Small cross-border actions with Lebanese Hezbollah (LH) and Syria.
- ISL has mobilized 300K+ and is preparing for ground ops in Gaza.
Predictions (always risky):
- ISL will launch ground offensive in next 48 hrs. LH will start sustained attacks as soon as ground invasion starts. Syria (busy with internal war) will launch very modest attacks in Golan to show support. Iran will support from Lebanon and Syria and provoke US (attack US bases in Syria/Iraq). Iran trying to bait US into direct conflict. Palestinian Authority will support minor uprising.
- ISL will temporarily occupy most of Gaza (Pic 2: @Samramani2), starting in least populated south, slowly constrict up to Gaza City with goal of destroying HAMAS. ISL has 2-4 weeks before pressure for ceasefire is overwhelming. Hard to envision a path that doesn’t lead to regional conflict.
- Logic different for all sides. Like Egypt in 73, HAMAS can lose 90% of its forces, but still “win.”
MIL responded
Hindsight suggests a different US COA post 9/11 might have been preferable - pursue AQ (only) with very small footprint special forces / CIA snatch and grab ops working with proxies inside AFG and leaving Iraq out of it all together. UBL said his objective was to bleed us dry of blood and gold by luring us into strategic ambushes.
Applying the same logic, is there anyway ISL can avoid ground ops in Gaza and adopt a stratagem of guile to address the leadership of Hamas and not get drawn into a quagmire where it will be blamed for significant civ cas that comes with large scale urban warfare? I note in this regard your assessment that they'll only have a few weeks before pressure for ceasefire mounts.
Of course this COA does not satisfy a strong public desire for punishment. But as the US found out over 20 years sometimes a bad COA becomes self punishment.
The Planner responded
“Sadly, I think the die has already been cast. Militarily, there are plenty of possible COAs, but politically ISL must have a maximalist response. The images are too horrific. Both sides will get exactly what they need.” and asked “How do you see it playing out?”
MIL responded
I see it playing out as major urban ops in a dense hostile environment would dictate, where barbaric extremists have had time to prepare layered defenses connected by tunnels to ambush the forces taking the bait as well as prepping for IO.
I'd prefer not to take the bait and play it in ways no one expects.
Strategic options:Strategy of punishment/retribution - understandable but that plays into enemy IO that aims to create a false equivalency of brutality among susceptible pop's. Also, is that the best way to destroy Hamas?
Strategy of denial - siege + highly targeted activity - also a punishment but less vulnerable to IO. Keeps flexibility for 2nd order contingencies.
Strategy of denial - siege + appear to do nothing but quietly go after the real chain of command including in Tehran (per Qasem Soleimani) as well as fair weather friends in Beirut, Baghdad and Moscow - all who stand to benefit from ISL getting mired in Gaza opening the door to escalation by LH and even directly by Iran if things go badly for the IDF. Ppl of Iran hate regime. Lots to work with there.
All of these wd require patience and will not deliver satisfying immediate retribution but may be more effective in the long run. Vengeance or effectiveness?On the hostages - I have really wrestled with this. What I am about to suggest is not what civilized states should do - and may indeed be a war crime. But it is the only option I can think of that might stop Hamas' strategy.
If Hamas execute hostages then ISL should start at the top of the list of their most valuable Hamas captives and publicly respond - one for one.
This is not who I am at all and I am disgusted at the idea of it. If there is a more effective way to stop such barbarity and deter future executions by Hamas I am all for any other option.
Nor do I think barbarity should be met with barbarity. I was totally against enhanced interrogation techniques for example. But in this unique instance, I do not have a better option.
Later in the day MIL discovered Tom Friedman's analysis in the NYT and was surprised to see we agree. Friedman wrote:
"I believe one reason Hamas not only launched this assault now — but also seemingly ordered it to be as murderous as possible — was to trigger an Israeli overreaction... I hope the president is asking Israel to ask itself this question as it considers what to do next in Gaza: What do my worst enemies want me to do — and how can I do just the opposite? What Israel’s worst enemies — Hamas and Iran — want is for Israel to invade Gaza and get enmeshed in a strategic overreach there that would make America’s entanglement in Falluja look like a children’s birthday party."
Follow-up Comment
Many have compared the Hamas attack to 9/11. Strategically, the parallels are strong - it is designed by the enemy to provoke an emotional overreaction to cause ISL to rush into an ambush. The enemy hold all the cards:
Hostages
Layered defenses in a dense urban landscape prepared well in advance,
Intense civilian overcrowding long in a state of humanitarian crisis due to Hamas stealing international aid from, and brutalizing, their own people who are powerless to do anything about it. In a larger sense, the people of Gaza are also hostages.
ISL withdrew from Gaza years ago to allow self-rule. However, as soon as the IDF crosses the line, all of Gaza’s woes will be blamed on ISL and most news consumers around the world will not be sophisticated enough to know any different.
Additionally, as MIL wrote above, Hamas is not the true source of the problem. It is the primary agent, but not the source. That is Tehran. Assisted on an ad hoc basis by various malignant others. Particularly, in this case Russia with whom Iran has grown close. Both gain significant advantages if ISL and the US are tied down in an urban hellscape quagmire like Gaza.
Arguably, Russia had even more to gain by the Hamas attack than Iran - as acknowledged by Dmitry Medvedev in an gloating tweet this week:
Medvedev writes the Hamas attack was an “expected development” because Russia almost certainly had knowledge of the pending attack due to its close ties with Iran, Hamas, and Islamic Jihad.2
Several Hamas leaders have visited Moscow, including Ismail Haniyeh, who held talks with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov in September 2022.
A delegation from their Gaza terrorist bedfellows, Islamic Jihad, led by its chief, Ziyad al-Nakhalah, also visited Moscow in March. Likewise, leaders of another Iranian proxy, Lebanese Hezbollah, have been welcome guests in Moscow.
The Ukrainian Center of National Resistance, allege Wagner participated in the training of Hamas militants on
“assault tactics and the use of small unmanned aerial vehicles to drop explosive devices onto vehicles and other targets.”
Medvedev makes plain that Russia wants to tie America down in the ISL-Hamas conflict in order to distract the US from its support of Ukraine.
The comment about civil war in America is at the heart of that strategy. It is long-standing Russian policy to undermine the US from within and has made striking advances in recent years.3 A “Putin caucus” has arisen within the GOP and is on the verge of killing-off Ronald Reagan’s legacy and turning the GOP into a pro-Russian party. Putinists have taken over the House GOP and only a few pro-Reagan hold-outs remain in the Senate.
The result? In the chaos in American politics that has been fermented by the Putinists who have artificially caused strife over the Speaker position, Congress passed a 45-day continuing resolution last week that provided no additional funding for Ukraine. The Hamas attack is being used by Putinists to argue the US can not support both ISL and UKR and therefore funding for UKR must remain off the table.
Why are there Putinists in the US congress? Because Trump supports Putin, they support Trump, and the silent majority of the GOP who are proud of Reagan for fighting Russian authoritarianism are too scared to speak out for fear of being primaried or physically attacked by Putinist violent extremists.
Trump also benefits from the chaos at home and in ISL as a distraction from his criminal and civil trials. Accordingly, Trump praised Hizbollah and criticized the government of Israel after the attacks. He knows the only way to stay out of prison is to regain the Oval Office so he will use any opportunity to further that goal. As Trump has already said he will cut off funds to UKR, it is also in Putin’s interests that Trump regains power. The more chaos and confusion the easier it will be for Trump to claim that only he can solve the various crises - something he is saying repeatedly.
Thus all of these events are interconnected and make for a very dangerous threat to ISL security, America’s democracy and the global rules based order. ISL should avoid the strategic ambush in Gaza and adopt the unexpected approach. In a global Hybrid War, that will be a major contribution to stopping Hamas, Iran, Russia and anti-democratic forces attempting coup 2.0 in the US.
Update 20 May 2024
ICC issue warrants for Hamas leaders and Netanyahu.
Update - How to Fight Hamas - 30 OCT 2023
Occasionally, a very important story gets out and usually goes unnoticed. This recently happened when the WP explained how Ukraine is taking the fight deep inside Russia. This is precisely the kind of thing MIL has in mind when he wrote above that ISL follow the Strategy of denial - siege + appear to do nothing + highly targeted operations. Because MIL does not like to get too into details for fear of unintended consequences, this story is a good guide if you don’t know how wars like these are fought. Past stories in this category include this one about an op in Iran.
Update - Hamas-Russia Links - 27 Oct 2023
A senior Hamas delegation has travelled to Moscow to meet Russian foreign ministry officials in the organisation’s first high-profile international visit since it launched a raid in southern Israel on 7 October, killing an estimated 1,400 people and taking another 220 hostage.
The delegation was led by Mousa Abu Marzook, a founder and political leader of Hamas, who met the Russian deputy foreign minister, Mikhail Bogdanov. Marzook, who lives in exile in Qatar, travelled to Moscow after an earlier meeting in Doha with Bogdanov and the Iranian deputy foreign minister, Ali Bagheri Kani.
The delegation was confirmed by representatives of Hamas and by Russia, and a photo showed the three men meeting at the Russian foreign ministry in Moscow.
Update - mainstream media picking up on advantages Putin gets from this war. WAPO. 17 OCT 2023
The timing of the attack could not have been better for Putin, who coincidentally was celebrating his birthday on Oct. 7, when hundreds of Hamas terrorists entered Israel and slaughtered more the 1,300 civilians. Russia’s main foreign policy goal right now is to distract the world from its ongoing invasion and atrocities in Ukraine. Specifically, Moscow is pushing for an end to U.S. military assistance to Ukraine, which is hanging by a thin thread in Congress. The crisis in Israel aids these efforts. Moscow’s interest is in stoking it, not solving it.
While there is no clear evidence that Russian leaders knew about the Hamas attacks in advance, the Kremlin is working hard to take advantage. Russia has stepped up its support for Hamas diplomatically and in the propaganda war; it’s also seizing the opportunity to ramp up its violence in Ukraine while the world is distracted. On Oct. 8, senior Hamas official Ali Baraka praised Russia’s assistance in an interview with Russia Today, a state-controlled media outlet
“There are countries that support us politically. Even Russia sympathizes with us,” he said. “Russia is happy that America is getting embroiled in the Palestinian war. It eases the pressure on the Russians in Ukraine. One war eases the pressure in another war. So, we’re not alone on the battlefield.”
Update - Biden Doctrine by Thomas Friedman - 31 Jan 2024
Sometimes the big complex problems need a clear solution. The only hope for any fix to the Middle East is simple*:
There has to be a 2 state solution.
The Arab world needs to take leadership over the creation of a stable and peaceful Palestine. That includes erasing Hamas which is an Iranian proxy - a mortal enemy to the Arabs.
The Arabs and Israelis need to complete their rapprochement in order to further isolate Iran. A win-win.
In order to achieve this outcome, Netanyahu has to go. His policy is about himself, not about finding a solution.
Hamas and Netanyahu have mutual interests in the current conduct of the war.
Israel and the Palestinian people do not.
MIL is yet again surprised to see that Tom Friedman has articulated a similar position in his 31 Jan Oped. FOR A GIFT COPY CLICK HERE
*Note simple ≠ easy
Update - President Biden Echoes MIL caution about falling into the terror trap - 18OCT2033
https://twitter.com/Acyn/status/1714647415637098894?t=Xg5YoCDLywr2z4k8-cBE6A&s=19
MIL has sister sites where practical application of these approaches to thinking take place on the future of war in Asia, unconventional nuclear warfare and the implications of domestic terrorism in the US. In some instances, these topics all interact.
Moscow built Iran’s first nuclear power plant and deepened ties with Tehran as its tensions with the West soared. Relations with Iran grew even closer amid the Syrian war when they teamed up to back Assad’s government. Amid the war in Ukraine, Iran has provided Moscow with hundreds of Shahed exploding drones that the Russian military has used against Ukraine’s energy facilities and other key infrastructure. Iran also has reportedly shared its drone technology with Russia, which built a facility to produce them.
Russia has fomented discord, violence and division throughout the Sahel, the Black Sea, the Middle East, the Balkans and the Baltic States. It has done so by sowing disinformation through social media platforms, by direct interventions and by funding and training insurgents to overthrow governments through the use of mercenaries such as PMC Wagner.
Moscow has brutally suppressed uprisings in Chechnya and Syria, supported insurrections in Niger and Sudan, illegally annexed “Russian-speaking” territories in Georgia, Moldova, Ukraine and Crimea, and, in February 2022, launched its “special military operation” in Ukraine — so far a failure that threatens Putin’s aspirations.
Very thin analysis. Skips over what the intelligence failure suggests about probability of success in going after Hamas, or of airstrikes
Suggested policy of executing a Palestinian prisoner if Hamas executes an Israeli one if Israeli kills people in airstrikes... This is ludicrously stupid.
Only suggested aim of Hamas is to provoke a costly invasion. While I agree they probably see an invasion as strengthening their base of support in the traumatized masses, it also hits Israel politically, and might bring down Netanyahu's strong man coalition