Good article! Many of the notes are as interesting as the main body. Another bias to consider could be called the “real world bias” or the “outsized operator bias” whereby the member of a planning team who has real world operational experience is given disproportionate deference compared to those who are “book-trained” or inexperienced. This is often a powerful subset of an anecdotal bias where the individual’s specific tactical experience is allowed to affect the analysis of larger strategic or operational problems. This can also be found outside the planning cell when a veteran who has little experience in or knowledge of the subject matter becomes an expert news pundit on all things military.
Fantastic insight. Along similar lines, I have seen the "currency bias" where experts censor themselves because they have not seen the latest intel or have not been on the ground in 90 days (seems to be the period of currency). This can be a real problem sometimes. More often than not an inability to abstract reason or to be able to compare current events to historical examples (or related ability to put things in context) is the issue, not currency. Thanks for raising this I will add both to the list.
I had a student about to deploy to Afghanistan who wanted to write his masters thesis on a recent operation there in order to prepare himself to lead his battalion. A noble aim from one of the finest men I had the privilege to share a year in conversation. I told him to read David Loyn's "In Afghanistan: Two Hundred Years of British, Russian and American Occupation".
A few weeks later he was talking on class about Afghanistan and I asked him "you have not read Loyn yet have you?" Looking a bit sheepish he said "no".
A week later in class he could not hold back and gave a 20 min soliloquy on how we were doing nothing that the Russians and the Brits before them had not tried. In fact, we were all making the same mistakes. After he got that all off his chest I said dryly "I see you have ready Loyn". He smiled. I asked, "still want to write on that latest battle?" He said "yes, but from a whole new vantage point". This was one of those delightful "A-ha" moments that sometimes come along.
Good article! Many of the notes are as interesting as the main body. Another bias to consider could be called the “real world bias” or the “outsized operator bias” whereby the member of a planning team who has real world operational experience is given disproportionate deference compared to those who are “book-trained” or inexperienced. This is often a powerful subset of an anecdotal bias where the individual’s specific tactical experience is allowed to affect the analysis of larger strategic or operational problems. This can also be found outside the planning cell when a veteran who has little experience in or knowledge of the subject matter becomes an expert news pundit on all things military.
Fantastic insight. Along similar lines, I have seen the "currency bias" where experts censor themselves because they have not seen the latest intel or have not been on the ground in 90 days (seems to be the period of currency). This can be a real problem sometimes. More often than not an inability to abstract reason or to be able to compare current events to historical examples (or related ability to put things in context) is the issue, not currency. Thanks for raising this I will add both to the list.
I had a student about to deploy to Afghanistan who wanted to write his masters thesis on a recent operation there in order to prepare himself to lead his battalion. A noble aim from one of the finest men I had the privilege to share a year in conversation. I told him to read David Loyn's "In Afghanistan: Two Hundred Years of British, Russian and American Occupation".
A few weeks later he was talking on class about Afghanistan and I asked him "you have not read Loyn yet have you?" Looking a bit sheepish he said "no".
A week later in class he could not hold back and gave a 20 min soliloquy on how we were doing nothing that the Russians and the Brits before them had not tried. In fact, we were all making the same mistakes. After he got that all off his chest I said dryly "I see you have ready Loyn". He smiled. I asked, "still want to write on that latest battle?" He said "yes, but from a whole new vantage point". This was one of those delightful "A-ha" moments that sometimes come along.