Iran: Next Steps

US involvement

Washington DC 19 June 2025

BLUF

• The US will conduct multiple overlapping bunker busting strikes on buried centrifuge sites by B-2 bombers using GBU-57 MOP (Massive Ordnance Penetrator) flown from CONUS or Diego Garcia. The attack will likely occur on or after Saturday night, local time, 21 June 2025.

• The US should simultaneously eliminate all Iranian maritime assets used to threaten the Strait of Hormuz.

• The US should then declare mission objectives accomplished and withdraw.

• This is a limited attack - not a war.

• No one will invade or occupy Iran.

  • No one wants Iran. Except the Iranian people in competition with their barbarous regime.

  • It is critical to remember “Airpower, even when paired with intelligence networks, has never toppled a government.” Robert Pape

• The regime has never been so weak in its history as it is today. After these operations, internal security is the only thing it can control. A massive crack down should be anticipated - assuming various domestic oppositions groups are ready, willing and able to mount a revolt.

• Regime change under these conditions is impossible. Internally, it may be different, but highly unlikely given preventing regime change will be the central focus of effort and no one will stop them. No mission creep! No matter how tempting or worthwhile for the Iranian people. Unlike any prior president, Trump is unlikely to get sucked into a feel-good disaster.

Terminology:

• IRN - Iran

• ISR - Israel

• IRGC - Iranian Revolution Guard Corps or Quds force which is separate from the armed forces and far more important/capable.

Context

The following rundown is ante-bellum.

Iran is nearly 4 times the size of Iraq with double the population. Its economy is in persistent crisis with unemployment at 7% and inflation at 39% with most government expenditures going to terrorism and war. It relies heavily on illegal sanction-busting oil exports and has a critical vulnerability in its refining capacity. It is a key member of the Axis of Autocracy, led by Russia and supported by China. Russia has a growing reliance on Iranian drones and munitions for the war in Ukraine and they worked closely together in Syria.

Iran has many enemies: Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states, ISR, the US, its own people, elements in Afghanistan and Pakistan, as well as separatists groups (Balochis, Kurds, Azerbaijanis and Arabs).

• Everyone hates the Iranian government, making it easy for Israel to find common cause with its Arab neighbors. The Abraham Accords are the public face of a decade of rapprochement caused in large part by Iran’s increasingly unacceptable conduct.

  • Israeli operations in Gaza were successful against Hamas but have since deteriorated into crimes against the people.¹ Yet Arab government criticisms have been relatively muted because elimination of the Iranian threat is the greater prize.

To mange so many enemies, Iran has a defense in depth strategy. Iran assumed its ability to choke the Strait’s of Hormuz and Bab al-Mandab, combined with fear of its ballistic missiles and global terrorism capabilities, ensured its homeland would be a sanctuary - a red line no one would dare cross.

Accordingly, it put the bulk of its resources and efforts into proxies controlled by the IRGC around the region. This emphasis resulted in the quip: “Iran is willing to fight to the last Houthi”.

Homeland defense was limited to a very strong IADS (Integrated Air Defense System) based on advanced Russian S-300 and similar systems; ballistic missiles, drones, small boat swarms, a pathetic air force; and a set of brutal internal security forces willing to engage in large scale murder and violence at will. The threat of reaching a nuclear weapons threshold was used as a bargaining tool more than a defensive posture. Remember Saddam kept lying about his WMD to scare Iran - not realizing US threats of invasion were serious.

The objective of the defense in depth strategy: impose maximum harm, disruption, costs and fear against Iran’s enemies as far away from the homeland as possible. This strategy was carefully crafted to keep under the threshold of justifying a counterattack against the homeland.

The Hamas attack on Israel crossed that threshold.

Iranian Proxies

• Iraq (Various)

• Yemen (Houthi’s & Bab al-Mandab Strait/Red Sea)

• Syria (Various)

• Lebanon (Hezbollah)

• Gaza (Hamas)

• Pakistan (Zainabiyoun Brigade, however represents recruitment from Pakistan rather than proxy operations within Pakistan - Jaish ul-Adl is an enemy group targeting Iranians in Pakistan's Balochistan)

Influence ops

• Libya (Hafta’s forces off and on - proxy fight against Saudi Arabia)

• Sudan (Bab al-Mandab Strait/Red Sea)

Israel’s strategy

• Peel the onion back, layer, by layer, to access the core.

  • Layers - human/cyber/espionage/intelligence networks - proxies, IRGC leaders and assets, IADS, ballistic missiles, drones, weapons manufacturing facilities, supply chains, income streams (weapon exports - oil? - see below)

• Shock and awe: clandestine operations targeted against key proxies. For example

  • Intelligence Penetration: Israel demonstrated deep intelligence capabilities, successfully infiltrating Hezbollah and Iranian networks. This enabled precise targeting of high-value assets and leaders.

  • Proxy Network Degradation: Israel has severely weakened Iran’s broader proxy network, including Hezbollah in Lebanon and Syria, Hamas in Gaza and the Houthis in Yemen.

  • Decapitation strikes:

Ismail Haniyeh, leader of Hamas was killed in the heart of Tehran in July 2024 by a bomb placed in a guest house. The message was clear. Israel could reach out and touch whomever it wanted at will. They speared the Supreme Leader, Ali Hosseini Khamenei. He got the message but did not act on it.

Someone’s having a tough day at the office.

• Operation Grim Beeper in Sept 2024 where thousands of booby-trapped pagers and walkie-talkies exploded simultaneously across Hezbollah-controlled areas in Lebanon and Syria. “These devices had been secretly manufactured or modified by Mossad years earlier and sold to Hezbollah through shell companies. The explosives were ingeniously hidden inside the battery packs—using PETN plastic explosives and a novel, X-ray-invisible detonator”.

• Hezbollah’s leader Hassan Nasrallah and most of the group’s senior command were killed by air strike in Beirut as they met in person to discuss how to retaliate against Grim Beeper.

• Operation Rising Lion, 13 June 2025, repeated the mission: Israel replicated the Ukrainian drone attack inside Russia, by smuggling drones into Iran and launching them against Iranian IADS and ballistic missile sites. This paved the way for more than 200 ISR fighters to bomb Iranian targets at will in the ensuing days. An ISR official claimed

  The first wave of strikes give Israel “significant freedom of movement” in Iran’s skies, clearing the way for further attacks.

  Just as Hezbollah’s leaders came together to discuss Grim Beeper, the Israelis were waiting for the leadership of the IRGC to gather in a known bunker in Tehran to discuss responses to Rising Lion. They too were killed, including

  Gen. Mohammad Bagheri (Commander of the armed forces); Gen. Hossein Salami (IRGC leader); and the head of the Guard’s ballistic missile program, Gen. Amir Ali Hajizadeh.

  • They were among the more than two dozen Iranian commanders targeted in a sprawling attack on Iran's military command-and-control. Top nuclear scientists were also assassinated in the same strikes.

  • Surface targets at nuclear sites were bombed.

  • The strikes targeted infrastructure belonging to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the Guards’ Quds Force, and Iran’s armed forces, and “numerous weapons production sites across Iran were targeted,” according to the IDF.

• Escalating strikes against Iranian homeland targets

  • The feared Iranian IADS system has been destroyed giving the IDF air supremacy over Iran.

Israel’s Stunning Victories so far

Israel has degraded all of IRNs previous advantages and strengths

• All proxies decapitated, weak, and living in fear. Israeli spies are in all the networks - human and otherwise. Nowhere is safe. No communications are safe… If IT breaks down and someone calls a meeting, would you go? An attack can come at any moment from any vector. So a huge amount of friction has been thrown into all proxy operations. More importantly, the proxies know once Iran is down, they are next. Israel and indeed the west, will not tolerate groups like the Houthis holding key maritime choke points at risk. We have already seen Hezbollah and the Houthis cry uncle. That wont save them. There will be relentless attacks on them to send the message that if you join them you will die.

• IRGC leadership has been decapitated. Its networks are infiltrated. Its coms compromised. There will always be a new ambitious leader in the pipeline. He too will get caught in the mowers blades as the lawn is routinely mowed after the cessation of major combat operations.

• The ballistic missiles - an ace in the hole - have been severely degraded and remaining stocks are rapidly dwindling - most of which are bouncing harmlessly off the iron dome.² Missile manufacturing facilities have been blown up and supply chains are dwindling. Sales to Russia (to make up for their collapsing war in Ukraine), will have to be cut as Iran focuses on their own needs. Everything will have to move to a clandestine model, yet again adding painful friction into Iranian war fighting and terror capacity.

• Iran has played hybrid war for so long it does not have much of a conventional force. The IRGC is the central effort. What air force they had is charred and smoking on runways (Mav & Goose know its right, but it still hurts seeing the last airworthy F-14s die like that). When you think of the army, you really need to think in terms of internal security forces like the Basij supported by the MOIS (Ministry of Intelligence and Security) and IRGC.³ The missing piece is the IRGC boats - we will return to that below.

• Oil. Reports are that oil infrastructure may be targeted. Don’t rush to buy Exxon stocks just yet. Iran’s contributions to the global economy have been constrained by sanctions for years. So their sales are mostly under the table to China… India.. you want to speak up here? This makes their oil infrastructure a smart target - eliminating a key regime income source with negligible impact on global prices as they are not counted. In other words, the down side of destroying Iranian oil supplies is ‘baked into’ global prices. Indeed, what impact there will be is on the sanction busters and no one loves those guys.

• That just leaves 2 remaining key Iranian advantages in all this.

  • The ability to produce a nuclear weapon. Produce - not deliver. Missile delivery is out but unconventional options possible against ISR and the US.

  • The Straits of Hormuz.

The One Target Israel Cant Reach

Ostensibly, this war is directed against Iran’s capability and capacity to create nuclear weapons. This is true. However, it is also payback. Not just for Oct 7, but for decades of terror, regional threats and repression of the Iranian people.

There is one target set ISR cant reach - deeply buried centrifuges. Only the USA can reach these - in theory. Robert Pape outlines the reasons why ISR is dependent on the US for the final piece in the puzzle: the centrifuges.

Israel faces three impediments to knocking out these facilities altogether. First, much of Iran’s nuclear program, including its uranium enrichment facilities, is buried deep underground. The well-developed facility at Fordow is burrowed hundreds of feet under a mountain, and a new underground facility at Natanz, at depths similar to Fordow, has been under construction for several years. Thus far, Israel has not targeted Fordow at all and has limited its attacks on Natanz to its power generation facilities rather than attempting to destroy the centrifuges and stockpiles of enriched uranium buried 75 feet under the surface. No available evidence suggests that Israel has the airpower payload capacity to carry the 30,000-pound large earth-penetrating bombs developed by the United States that would be necessary to carry out an attack to totally destroy Fordow.

The 30,000 lbs, GBU-57 MOP (Massive Ordnance Penetrator), is ONLY available from a B-2 bomber. Incredibly, the B-2 can carry 2 of these behemoths. However, Iran knows this and likely buried its newer facilities deeper than the 200ft penetration the GBU-57 offers. Consequently, a series of GBU-57 will need to be delivered against each target. If I were planning this strike, I would be looking at maximum delivery on target to make sure. Thats likely the entire stock of ~30 GBU-57s. Two per B-2, number of targets (assume 3), available B-2s (assume 8), thats ~5 airframes per site, which results in 10 bombs or 300,000 lbs per target. That should do it. War stock estimates = about 30 bombs. Of course, if that does not work, they can always fly back. This will impact available penetrator stocks for Russia, China and (more likely) DPRK targets for some years. Thats the risk calculus. As all the others are nuclear powers, putting the GBU-57s against Iranian targets makes sense, as nuclear weapons covers the others.

30,000 lbs of freedom

It may be that the centrifuges are so deep they survive. Without the details, I cant make that judgment. Likely, the DOD knows the true depth and have had people inside to make sure. We are that good.They wont attempt an attack if the parameters are impossible to reach.

Given all the risks of this operation have been stripped away by ISR, it makes it a very tempting option. It wont save the Iranian people - thats up to them. But it will buy them significant time to take care of business should they chose that path.

As for the US - almost all of the downside has been removed by ISR. There is nothing much left to lose for the US. Except for one factor that is wild speculation and pure rumor… but worth noting so nothing is missed.

Unverified reports have arisen in social media that suggest China has moved quickly to support its Axis ally by delivering unknown cargo by urgent overnight airlift.⁴ I am skeptical of such reports, not due to the source (which is solid) but because China is not usually so assertive in high profile situations, when the terms are outside of their own control. Nor do I think they would be comfortable with the risks of being outed in an operation of this kind. The unspecified, but implied action, is suggestive of new IADS support.

However, a wild card option might be deliveries of a handful of DF-21F and their crews (Iran would have no hope to operate these by themselves in the timeframe). NIMITZ and CARL VINSON have been surged to the region. Attacking and certainly sinking, a US carrier would result in a nuclear response. China would gain by testing their technology against the US in combat operations, but the risk of a nuclear retaliation would be far beyond their usual boundaries. Equally, if the DF-21F failed, then their loss would be doubled or tripped both politically and militarily. Again, not worth the risk. They dont need cheap oil that bad! That leaves IADS support. Brining down a B-2 from a “defensive SAM” system would be a massive national humiliation for the US but would not go anywhere near a nuclear threshold. Could either system be rapidly set up and combat ready in 48 hours? 99-1 unlikely. However, I urge B-2 wings to think this possibility through.

The other target set that needs elimination ASAP

The small boat threat against the Strait of Hormuz.

Perhaps ISR has this target set dialed in? The US needs to ensure the threat to the Strait is eliminated either by ISR or directly by US forces. If it is to be from the US, the best time to do this is in sync with the bunker busters. Simultaneous attacks on both target sets will further complicate things for Iran, contributing to an increased likelihood of success. Iran will be able to regenerate small boats and drones fast enough, but the entire architecture of the IRGC has been crushed and that changes the calculus. This page has addressed this issue before.

HOW TO STOP IRAN

The calculation of that Jan 2024 assessment has swung decisively in favor of action in recent days. It is the kind of thing that can be forgotten due to the critical focus needed on the nuclear targets, but it is within our capabilities and must be added for operational and strategic reasons.

Consequences

Losers

• Iranian regime

• Iranian proxies and dependent states

• Russia

• Iranian people

• US opposition to President Trump - both inside maga and traditional opponents

Winners

• Israel

• US

• Iranian people

• President Trump

The Iranian people could be winners or losers depending on how things unfold inside the country. The regime knows no one will invade and occupy their country. Equally, the regime has never been as weak as it is right now - due to external pressure on their war making capabilities and capacity. Therefore, at this point, the only thing the regime can control is the only threat that might result from recent events - a popular uprising. Comprehensive plans to snuff out any domestic uprisings are no doubt already in place. If things turn really nasty, there will be a temptation to intervene to eliminate the regime once and for all. This would be folly. One thing Trump has got right is to reject open ended invitations to sink into quagmires in far away lands whose culture and traditions are alien to our own.

This leaves the biggest winner. Donald J Trump.

His narrative, that he often talked Netanyahu out of attacking Iran and waited until the last minute to give Iran all the diplomatic space it could possibly need to avoid conflict, will be hard to refute. Equally, limited US airstrikes against the centrifuges and maritime threats to the Straits, would be win-win for all parties - thanks to Israel clearing all the prodigious obstacles out of the way over the past few years. Due to the limited nature of this attack, Trump could credibly avoid accusations that he was getting America into another forever war. If it is a success, ever sensitive to the propaganda opportunity, Trump will paint himself as a war hero and strategic genius. This will defuse growing maga opposition to this attack and crush his domestic opponents as weak.

The one thing that will be gnawing at him is the possibility we lose a B-2. If that happens, his own fragile grip on domestic power will be further shaken, following on the heels of the largest nation wide protests in US history that coincided with the tanks rolling in the streets of DC that was a total flop compared to the intended strong man show of force. He will be painted as Biden 2.0 - too weak, old, easily manipulated and not in control.

Trump is reveling in the fact the world is hanging on his every syllable right now. It fans the flames of his game show host instincts for carnival and ratings. However, this option is not totally risk free. It certainly is a risk light as it gets. Likely it will be pulled off flawlessly. But a lost B-2 will be a hard matter to spin - even for teflon don.

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How a bunker buster works -

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Update - Why it matters

1. There are key differences between the Israeli government, its military and people. Netanyahu has been under pressure at home for corruption and dictatorial policies. The army and intelligence agencies have at times criticized him, and the people regularly engage in massive protests. Mounting domestic pressure is what caused him to prolong operations in Gaza. When legitimate targets ran out and his attacks on citizens became obvious war crimes, he had no choice other than to directly attack Iran in order to keep pressure off him at home. As those operations have paid handsomely, his domestic position has been enhanced. But for how long remains to be seen. Once the Iranian threat is fully eliminated, it’s hard to see how he keeps the war drums beating. Then it will be consequence time for him at home.

2. No this does not mean the iron dome concept is smart for America. Totally different proposition.

3. A paramilitary volunteer force under the IRGC, the Basij is deployed to crush protests, enforce ideological conformity, and monitor neighborhoods. With millions of members, it’s one of the largest civil militias in the world.

4.